December 10, 2022

NFL Week 5 early odds: Tom Brady puts improbable Thursday streak on the line, winless Falcons favored to win

If the Chicago Bears are going to win in Week 5, they’re going to have to do something they’ve never done: Beat Tom Brady. Right now though, the oddsmakers don’t seem to like the Bears’ chances of making that happen. 

In the early odds for Week 5, the Bears have opened as a 5.5-point underdog to the Buccaneers. When the game kicks off on Thursday, all eyes will be on Tom Brady, who actually has two impressive streaks going. 

The first streak relates to the fact that Brady is unbeatable on Thursday night. During his 20-year career, Brady has never lost a Thursday game that was played on short rest (Brady’s only Thursday loss came in Week 1 of the 2017 season). When you look at the short rest games, Brady is 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 ATS. 

Besides being undefeated in Thursday night games played on short rest, Brady has also never lost to the Bears. Over the course of his career, not only is Brady 5-0 straight-up, but he’s also 4-1 against the spread (ATS). Brady has been nearly unstoppable in games against the Bears, throwing 14 touchdown passes and completing more than 70 percent of his passes. The Bears are one of five teams that Brady has never lost to, along with the Cowboys, Vikings, Buccaneers and Falcons. 

It was a wild Week 4 Sunday, and there’s a lot to go over. John Breech, Ryan Wilson and host Will Brinson break it all down on the Pick Six Podcast; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.

Speaking of the Falcons, they’re the only winless team favored to win this week. Of course, they might not actually be winless going into Week 5 if they can beat the Packers on Monday. As things stand now though, they’re 0-3 and the oddsmakers have made them a 3.5-point favorite over the 2-2 Panthers. 

So are there any other surprises in Week 5?

Let’s get to the early odds and find out. 

NFL Week 5 early odds 

(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Buccaneers (3-1) at Bears (3-1), Thursday

Opening line: Buccaneers, -5.5 points

The Bears might not be able to end Tom Brady’s Thursday streak, but there’s definitely a chance they could cover here and that’s because they tend to do a pretty good job of covering in primetime games. In their past 10 night games, the Bears have gone 7-3 ATS (5-5 SU). One other thing to like about the Bears is the fact that they’re 13-4 ATS since the start of the 2016 season when they’re a home underdog. 

Panthers (2-2) at Falcons (0-3)

Opening line: Falcons, -3.5 points

If there’s one team the Falcons are probably glad to see this week, it’s the Carolina Panthers. Although the Falcons seem to be struggling against everyone, they don’t seem to struggle against Carolina. In their past nine games against the Panthers, the Falcons are 8-1 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Panthers, they’re just 2-8 straight-up in their past 10 games against a divisional opponent (4-6 ATS). 

Opening line: Bills, -1-point

If you’re looking for a road team to regularly bet on, you might want to think about the Buffalo Bills. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Bills have gone 7-2-1 ATS and 8-2 straight-up in road games, which includes Sunday’s 30-23 win over the Raiders in Las Vegas, where they covered as a three-point favorite. The Titans are the most perplexing team to bet on in the NFL this year. Although they’re 3-0 straight-up, they’re 0-3 ATS on the season and if that pattern holds, that means they’re going win by exactly one point in Week 4. The Titans are also 1-5 ATS in their past six regular season games dating back to last year. One thing to consider with the Titans is that it’s unclear how much practice time they’ll get this week. As of Monday, they still weren’t allowed inside their facility due to current COVID-19 restrictions that the NFL has in place. 

Raiders (2-2) at Chiefs (3-0)

Opening line: Chiefs, -12.5 points

Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 28-3 straight-up against divisional opponents and 21-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs have also dominated the Raiders, going 10-1 straight-up in their past 11 games (8-3 ATS). The last two times these two teams played in Kansas City, the Raiders were a double-digit underdog, and in both games. not only did the Chiefs win, but they also covered. 

Opening line: Cardinals, -8 points

In Kliff Kingsbury’s short time as coach, the Cardinals have played five games out in the eastern time zone and they’ve gone 4-1 ATS. However, that record includes a not so impressive 2-3 record straight-up. The Cardinals have also struggled against AFC teams, going 2-6 straight-up since the start of the 2018 season. As for the Jets, they’re one of just FOUR teams that has yet to cover the spread in a game this year. 

Opening line: Steelers, -7 points

Betting on the Steelers in a game against an NFC team has been an easy way to win money over the past few years. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS against the NFC (6-3 straight-up). That being said, the Steelers are just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games where they were favored by at least a touchdown. As for the Eagles, they’re 0-3 ATS In their past three games against AFC teams, which includes a 23-23 tie against the Bengals in Week 3 where they didn’t cover as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Rams (3-1) at Washington (1-3)

Opening line: Rams, -9 points

When it comes to traveling to the Eastern Time Zone to face an NFC team, the Rams have had more success recently than almost any other west coast team in the NFL. Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have gone 5-0 both straight-up and ATS in eastern time against NFC teams while averaging an impressive 37 points per game in those wins. As for Washington, it’s 0-5 straight-up and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five games where it was an underdog of at least a touchdown, including Sunday’s 31-17 loss to the Ravens where Washington pushed as a 14-point underdog. 

Bengals (1-2-1) at Ravens (3-1)

Opening line: Ravens, -13 points

The Bengals have gone winless in 15 straight road games, which is probably going to make it tempting to bet against them, but keep in mind that they’ve gone 10-5 ATS in those games, including 2-0 this year. In another twist, the Bengals are 0-10-1 straight-up in the past 11 games where they’ve been an underdog of six or more, but 7-4 ATS. If you’re thinking about betting the Ravens to cover, just remember that the last eight Bengals-Ravens games that have been played in Baltimore have been decided by just one score, including last year when the Bengals covered as a 10.5-point underdog in a 23-17 loss. Also, Lamar Jackson is just 4-11 ATS in home games during his career, including the playoffs (11-4 straight-up). 

Opening line: Texans, -6.5 points

The Texans will probably be glad to see the Jaguars on Sunday and that’s because Deshaun Watson has never lost to Jacksonville. Not only is Watson 4-0 straight-up, but he’s also 3-1 ATS. As for the Jaguars, they’re 7-2 ATS in the past nine games where they were an underdog of six or more points and they’ve actually pulled off an upset in three of those games. The Jags have also covered in three straight divisional games dating back to last season. 

Opening line: 49ers, -3.5 points

Betting on the Dolphins to beat an NFC team has been an easy way to lose money over the past few years. In their past 12 games against the NFC, the Dolphins have gone 2-10 straight-up and 3-9 ATS.  That being said, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to the West Coast. As for the 49ers, they didn’t beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but when we just look at regular season games, they’ve been covering machines against AFC teams. In their past eight games against the AFC, the 49ers have gone 7-1 ATS and 6-2 straight-up. 

Opening line: Pick’em

The Browns have looked like one of the best teams in football over the past three weeks and the good news for them is that this game is being played in Cleveland. That’s good news in a pick’em because the Browns are 6-1 straight-up in their past seven home games. As for the Colts, they’re just 1-5 straight-up in their past six road games with that only win coming against the Bears on Sunday. 

Giants (0-4) at Cowboys (1-3)

Opening line: Cowboys, -9.5 points

One reason the Cowboys were a favorite to win the NFC East this year is because they always seem to take care of business in divisional games. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Cowboys are 15-3 both straight-up and ATS against NFC East teams, including 6-0 both straight-up and ATS against the Giants. As for the Giants, they haven’t been winning on the road, but they have been covering. In their past 17 road games, the Giants have gone an ugly 4-13 straight-up, but a wildly impressive 14-3 ATS, including Sunday’s loss to the Rams where they covered as a 12.5-point underdog in a 17-9 loss. One thing to keep in mind in this game is that former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett is now an assistant with the Giants and he knows his former team inside and out. 

Opening line: Patriots, -8.5 points

Although it’s not yet clear if Cam Newton will be available for this game, if history holds, that might not matter, because the Patriots almost always win when their favored by a touchdown or more against an AFC team. In the past 20 games where that’s happened, the Patriots have gone 18-2 straight-up. One interesting thing about that stat is that both of those losses came to the Dolphins. If you take out Miami, then the Patriots are 18-0 straight-up and 13-4-1 ATS against AFC teams at home. As for the Broncos, they’ve actually done a pretty good job of covering in road games, going 6-2 ATS in their past eight (3-5 straight-up). 

Vikings (1-3) at Seahawks (4-0)

Opening line: Seahawks, -7.5 points

For some reason, the Seahawks have had a serious problem covering the spread during October home games. In their past 10 October home games, the Seahawks are 2-8 ATS (6-4 straight-up). The Seahawks are also 0-4 ATS in the past four games where they were favored by a touchdown or more (3-1 straight-up). One thing to keep in mind for this game is that Pete Carroll has absolutely dominated Mike Zimmer in regular season games, going 3-0 both straight-up and ATS. 

Opening line: Saints, -8 points

As we mentioned last week and will mention every week until the streak ends, the Saints have one of the wildest gambling runs ever going: New Orleans has covered the spread in 18 straight October games dating back to Week 6 of 2015 (They’re 17-1 straight-up in those same games). This total includes Sunday’s win over Detroit. As for the Chargers, putting them in primetime doesn’t usually work out so well for them. In their past four night games, the Chargers have gone 0-4 both straight-up and ATS. 

BYE: Lions, Packers

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